Our January 9, 2012, edition had more than 40 forecasts for the 2012. While some things forecast still wait for final numbers, here’s how we did on others.
FORECAST Mayan calendar 12-21-2012 end of world would not occur.
RESULT: Yes. We’re still here and they’re not.
FORECASTS for the Economy and Indicators.
• Real GDP will be stronger and grow 3.00-4.00%.
RESULT: TBD. Q1 & Q2 were 2% and 1.2%, but Q3 was 3.1%. Q4 looks strong, less Sandy.
• CPI stay modest for now at 2.0%-3.00%, varying throughout the year.
RESULT: Yes. Eight of last 12 months CPI stayed in 2%-3% range, the remaining time was 1.8%.
• Home prices will take a hit the first half and experience a light recovery of 1.5% during the 2nd half.
RESULT: Yes. Case Shiller reported Q1 down 1.57%, and up 3.4% from April through Oct.
• Consumer spending should increase by 3.0%-4.0%.
RESULT: Yes. Spending was up 3.5% in November year-over-year.
• Personal income (without inflation) up 3.0%-4.0%.
RESULT: Yes. It was up 3%-4% most of the year.
• Unemployment better, then into the high 7% range by year end.
RESULT: Yes. Unemployment dipped and finished at 7.9% in November.
• Auto industry sales will be 10% higher than 2011.
RESULT: Yes. On 12/3/2013, Bloomberg reported car and light truck sales up 9.8 percent for 2012.
• Pipelines. In addition to the Keystone Pipeline running through the center of the country from Canada, there will be a second pipeline (the Enterprise Pipeline), running 1200-miles down the East Coast to the Gulf states. These will get media coverage.
RESULT: Yes. Pipelines are sprouting throughout the major energy corridors and are driving natural gas prices sharply lower.
• Labor union membership will remain level with no significant increases or decreases.
RESULT: Yes. Yes, through August, held steady at 52%.
• Anti-union legislators in Ohio will be tossed out of office,
RESULT: No. Only 3 months after repealing “Right to Work,” Ohioans changed their view. Ohio elected a state Senate that was 15-3 Republican, a state House that was 60-40 Republican, U.S. Congressmen 11-3 Republican. Yet the state went for Obama(?).
• Anti-union legislators will not be forced out in Wisconsin.
RESULT: Yes. Governor Scott survived recall vote.
• Indiana will pass stringent anti-union legislation, but no one will care.
RESULT: Yes. Indiana voted “right to work” legislation on Feb. 1, 2012. (Reuters)
• U.S. energy industry will to continue to expand with market forces overcoming EPA restrictions. Energy and energy technology will become an even greater force in U.S. economic expansion.
RESULT: Yes. During 2012 the US became a significant energy exporter. By year end, our energy independence seems to be inevitable. Private enterprise overcame enormous efforts of the EPA.
• Banking reserves will have continued very rapid growth, more than 10%.
RESULT: Yes. Nov. bank reserves up 12% from year ago.
• Gasoline prices (were $3.30) will be between $3.75 and $4.00 at the pump by April. Increases in gasoline taxes.
RESULT: Yes. Gas prices peaked at $3.936 on April 5 and 6 (CNNMoney, May 10, 2012)
• Home mortgage rates (30-yr. Fixed was 3.89%) to rise slightly to 4.0-4.5%.
RESULT: Close. Rates rose slightly to 4.08% on March 22, held steady and then fell to 3.35% by December.
FORECASTS for the Markets 2012.
• Dow to climb (was 12,035) by 15% or more (to 14,000), could be higher.
RESULT: Close. Dow rose 11.94% and hit 13,667 October 5, 2012.
• S&P 500 up to 1,440, or higher. (It was at 1278.)
RESULT: Yes. S&P 500 index rose 13.36% and hit 1476 on September 14, 2012.
• NASDQ up 20% or more to 3125, or higher. (It was at 2674.)
RESULT: Yes. NASDAQ rose 15.99% and hit 3183.95, September 14, 2012, and Closed 2012 at 3112.
• Gold would climb to $1,800. (It was at $1615.)
RESULT: Yes. Gold prices hit $1792 on October 4, 2012.
• Silver was $28.85/oz., would climb to $33 or more; should stay below $45.
RESULT: Yes. Silver prices hit $37.23 on February 29; it settled at $32.38 on December 18.
• Oil (WTI was $98.83) is going to $115-$120.
RESULTS: Close. WTI hit $108.82 on March 1.
• Oil Brent (was $101.56) going to $125.
RESULTS: Yes. Brent hit $125.05.82 on Mar. 15th.
• The U.S. dollar will gain against Jap Yen to go to 88.5 or higher.
RESULTS: Yes. USD vs. Yen hit a high of 88.8450 on November 23.
• The U.S. dollar will gain against the Euro, should improve to 1.25 or better.
RESULTS: Yes. USD vs. Euro opened 2012 with 1.2961, and reached a high of 1.3487 on February 25.
• Treasuries 1st through 3rd quarters: 2-year range: 2.01 to 2.30%.
RESULTS: Yes. The 2-year was at 0.28% for the year.
• Treasuries 1st through 3rd quarters: 10-year range: 2.01 to 2.30%.
RESULT: Yes. The 10-year stayed at 2.05% through most of April and averaged 1.8% for the year.
• Treasuries 1st through 3rd quarters: 90-day ranging 0.3 to 0.5%.
RESULT: No. The 90-day averaged 0.09% for the year, below the forecast range.
FORECASTS for the Markets 2012.
• Dow to climb (was 12,035) by 15% or more (to 14,000), could be higher.
RESULT: Close. Dow rose 11.94% and hit 13,667 October 5, 2012.
• S&P 500 up to 1,440, or higher. (It was at 1278.)
RESULT: S&P 500 index rose 13.36% and hit 1476 on September 14, 2012.
• NASDQ up 20% or more to 3125, or higher. (It was at 2674.)
RESULT: NASDAQ rose15.99% and hit 3183.95, September 14, 2012, and Closed 2012 at 3112.
• Gold would climb to $1,800. (It was at $1615.)
RESULT: Gold prices hit $1792 on October 4, 2012.
• Silver was $28.85/oz., would climb to $33 or more; should stay below $45.
RESULT: Silver prices hit $37.23 on February 29; it settled at $32.38 on December 18.
• Oil (WTI was $98.83) is going to $115-$120, with Brent (was $101.56) going to $125.
RESULTS: Close, WTI hit $108.82 on March 1. Brent hit $125.05.82 on Mar. 15th.
• The U.S. dollar will gain against Jap Yen to go to 88.5 or higher. USD vs. Euro should improve to 1.25 or better.
RESULTS:
USD vs Yen hit a high of 88.8450 on November 23.
USD vs Euro opened 2012 with 1.2961, and reached a high of 1.3487 on February 25.
• Treasuries 1st through 3rd quarters: 10-year range: 2.01 to 2.30%. 2-year range: 0.2 to 0.55%. 90-day ranging 0.3 to 0.5%.
RESULT:
The 10-year stayed at 2.05% through most of April and averaged 1.8% for the year.
The 2-year was at 0.28% for the year.
The 90-day averaged 0.09% for the year, below the forecast range.
See more at Go-CCF.com
